12.26 Nickel Morning Meeting Summary
Refined Nickel:
Spot Premiums/Discounts: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 4,000-4,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/mt, down by 200 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The quotation range for Russian nickel was -200 to 0 yuan/mt, with an average premium of -100 yuan/mt, down by 50 yuan compared to the previous trading day.
Futures Market: In the morning, nickel prices fluctuated at low levels, rising by 770 yuan to 125,470 yuan, an increase of 0.6%.
Spot Premiums/Discounts: Following the decline in the night session, nickel prices once again reached a short-term low. The premium for Jinchuan brand nickel was raised again. Although the sentiment of short-term supply tightening was alleviated, the tightness in spot market circulation persisted. Spot premiums/discounts for other brands of nickel plates showed relatively small changes.
Today, nickel prices fluctuated rangebound, continuing the upward trend from the previous trading day's daytime session. The premium for Jinchuan brand nickel remained largely stable at high levels, but as the sentiment of short-term supply tightening was gradually digested by the market, premiums showed slight loosening. Spot premiums/discounts for other brands of nickel plates remained largely stable throughout the month. This week, nickel prices fluctuated upward overall, while downstream sentiment for low-price restocking weakened, and market transactions turned cold again in the past two days.
Nickel Sulphate Price Spread: Today, nickel briquette prices were 124,750-125,150 yuan/mt, up by 1,250 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day's spot prices. Nickel sulphate remained at a discount to refined nickel.
Nickel Sulphate:
On December 25, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,373 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,000-26,920 yuan/mt, and the average price rose slightly compared to the previous day.
Cost Side: Today, LME nickel slightly rebounded to $15,465/mt, providing slightly stronger cost support. Demand Side: This week marked the traditional peak season for nickel salt procurement, with some inquiry orders appearing in the market. However, overall, the nickel salt market was not active. Supply Side: Salt plants maintained a firm stance on quotes. In summary, under the backdrop of weak demand from both buyers and sellers, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable.
Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):
On December 25, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 940 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), unchanged from the previous working day. Supply Side: Domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward. The strong US dollar led to increased costs for smelters on the mining side, and with traditional domestic smelters facing expanded losses, production motivation weakened, keeping production at low levels. In Indonesia, new RKAB quotas began to be released, and Indonesian smelters had sufficient raw material restocking. Coupled with the release of new capacity and the incremental production from high-grade nickel matte switching to NPI, Indonesian production continued to grow. Demand Side: Stainless steel social inventory and in-plant inventory destocking progressed slowly. Leading stainless steel mills showed weak purchase willingness for high-grade NPI, and some mills had already secured long-term contracts. In the short term, market transaction sentiment remained subdued, and high-grade NPI may continue to pull back. However, downside room is limited due to cost support.
Stainless Steel:
On December 25, stainless steel futures prices slightly declined again, but spot prices did not follow the drop further. Supply Side: Deliveries remained stable, with total volumes still steady. However, due to the year-end off-season, downstream purchase demand weakened, market sentiment was low, and spot market trends remained largely stable at low levels. The overall focus was on destocking, and stainless steel spot prices are expected to remain at low levels in the short term. In the morning, 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 12,950-13,200 yuan/mt, 304 HRC at 12,400-12,500 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled at 7,400-7,800 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled at 7,350-7,550 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2502 contract price was 13,000 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at 120-370 yuan/mt (spot cut edge = uncut edge + 170 yuan/mt).
